Cryptographers bet on quantum computing’s impact on encryption

The Register reports that two prominent cryptographers are placing a $5,000 wager on the timeline of quantum computing's ability to break current encryption standards. This bet stems from the ongoing debate about when quantum computers will become powerful enough to decrypt data secured by legacy algorithms, a threat that the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been preparing for with the development of post-quantum cryptography (PQC).

The wager pits Filippo Valsorda against Matthew Green, with Valsorda betting that the quantum-resistant algorithm ML-KEM-768 will be broken in a classical or quantum attack. Conversely, Green bets that a widely used elliptic curve algorithm, X25519, will be broken first. This debate is fueled by recent claims from Google researchers suggesting that fewer physical qubits might be needed to run Shor's algorithm for breaking elliptic curve cryptography than previously estimated. However, skepticism remains, with some experts pointing to the current limitations of quantum computers in error correction.

Source: The Register